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Paranamic view of our region

As an observer of what is taking place in our region, and to help us understand what might take place in the near future, below are a paranamic view of key dynamics and country characteristic:

President Trump is primarily driven by trade and business.

United States does not see itself as a charitable entity and promoting values ​​is something desirable but not pivotal.

United States does no longer wants the blood of its sons to be shed in a complex area like the Middle East.

Europe is preoccupied with the stability of its internal situation and will continue to revolve around itself until the engine of populace loses its traction.

Russia wants to return to its glory days in a complex world and discovers that the fragile situation in the region makes it difficult to count on.

Turkey is going through its most difficult stages of recantation from Othman rule and is loosing there friends at a frightening pace.

Saudi Arabia and the Gulf States found in president Trump a partner who is primarily driven by trade and they can do business with following the Obama era, while not forgetting that being a businessman does mean that the language of numbers can do its trick.

Internal friction in Washington DC will take much of the effort of America, and the reliability of the Gulf Trump gamble and adventure by them, especially as the enemies of tarmac politicians in the capital are increasing with time.

President Tramp found in Saudi Arabia a customer who's needs are big and their fulfillment are not so hard to meet.

Iran, will remain the strategic enemy of the Gulf States, with containment being their priority.

America doesn't mind strong Iranian rhetoric.

Iran does not mind if its critics are increasing, its strength is in its internal unity and has the patient and efficient practices and tools to implement its foreign policy.

The oil meter continues to flow.

The region lacks leadership following the Arab Spring shamble, countries such as Egypt, Iraq and Syria are fatigue. While Saudi Arabia is seeking to lead this region it is unaware of the cost of such a gamble and perhaps the tragic adventure of Yemen is a good example to remember.

Some Gulf states and Jordan will grant Saudi Arabia loyalty for fear of Iran or a desire for its generosity.

The UAE is seeking to engineer the region and in competition with Qatar its roles are far larger than their size and their ambitions may not suit their regional weight.

Jordan has returned strongly to the turbulent political scene in the region as an important element in its dynamic, especially on the Syrian file.

The region will go through the process of increasing armaments for all parties at the expense of development.

Terrorism with its many facets, especially the Salafist Jihadists, represents a fierce and frightening threat to most countries, especially the Gulf states.

Sectarianism is a useful vehicle for mobility in the region. At the same time, some use it as the blame factor for all the problems of the region.

Political Islam is in defense.

The street has affinity toward Islam .

Salafi Jihadist has kidnapped the Salafi world, and Wahhabism (Salafism) has hijacked the Sunni world.

Da'sh, as a disease, is a manifestation of regional illness,  it can be resuracted under other names, because the countries of the region have not yet taken preventive treatments.

Yemen first and then Bahrain is one of the first nations that will pay dearly for the tensions of the region, especially in the squares of settling accounts and confrontation Saudi Arabia - Iran and we pray that God to keep Iraq away from them.///////

Israel is like a saw that eats up and down and is the only winner of all the problems and troubles of the region while they are settling accounts among themselves.

Syria as a tragic episode has exhausted all of its stakeholders and they do not see light at the end of that long tunnel.

Egypt is still dealing with others as though it thinks it is a the centre of regional politics and not aware that the repercussions of globalization has in many cases made the virtual world in many cases more important than the world of reality.

Palestine a new and a sad old issue will try to be closed soon, do they have supporters?

The cries of the two opposing axes (who call themselves resistance and moderation) are getting louder towards a bloody conflict within the Middle East arena. What is the price for this ? and who will pay it?

There is another type of conflict in the region, which is between realism/pragmatism on the one hand and idealism/militancy on the other, it is important to remember that this type of conflict is old.

Populism is an upcoming sever storm following globalization.

It is difficult for any country to lead this complex region and perhaps the best thing they will do is to do there best so that the other does not to lead.

Good governance is missing in the region, we need it disparately.

Iraq is exhausted, it is going through a stage of self-discovery, its communities needs physical and psychological support.

All Iraqi options are difficult and perhaps "caution and good management of complexity" are the two most important objectives we need now, especially with having so many wide and deep unknown variables.

Iraq, which is preoccupied with confronting terrorism and not having a cohesion  internal political arena because of its stakeholders conflicts of interest, is a fertile ground for settling accounts between countries. The political elite and its coalition government need to be careful and not to be dragged into this regional conflict for sectarian or political reasons.

Iraq is at a crossroads at present, and the government and political leaders need to make important decisions in the midst of rapid events in the region by determining its position on the movement led by Saudi Arabia under the terms of the Islamic - Arab - US cooperation - to confront Iran.

I am sure there are other important dynamics and characteristic which I have missed.

Oh God guide us and show us the right way.

 

Lukman Faily

21/05/2017